A backup you have not restored is a guess
For a long time my backup check was looking at the size of the archive. If the number looked about right, I moved on. That tells you a file exists and very little else.
Now I restore into a throwaway directory once a month and run three checks:
- The newest file in the restore is as recent as it should be.
- A database dump loads into a scratch instance without errors.
- A row I know changed last week shows the new value.
The whole thing takes ten minutes. It has caught one real problem so far: an exclude pattern that had been silently skipping a directory since the day I wrote it.
The other habit worth keeping is storing a copy on a machine that shares nothing with the original. Same provider and same region means the same bad day.